March will be a crucial month for predicting how durable goods orders will fair into the summer. Economists expect an estimated 2.5% increase in March according to a survey by the Bloomberg terminal. Despite concerns of high interest rates deterring investor spending, last month’s increase of 1.4% showed resilience in the economy. Estimates for March show confidence the manufacturing sector will remain up. 

Here are the key elements to look at when the report is released on Wednesday:

Aircraft orders

Aircraft orders were stifled in January due to prominent issues with Boeing aircrafts. The bounce-back in Boeing orders reported in February jolted the headline number back to a positive pace of increase. The broader trend recently indicates that aircraft sales tend to heavily influence the overall final output in the manufacturing sector.

Though the first quarter tends to be the worst for aircraft orders, gearing deeper into the year and with warmer weather on the horizon means that aircraft companies like Boeing are looking to experience increased orders. 

Orders excluding aircraft

Now that you know the importance of aircraft orders, the second most important number will be the amount of orders placed on everything else.

Economists condemned last months report saying it showed a cautious environment for businesses. The headline number will certainly get pushed by airline orders which is precisely the reason why it is important to partially ignore the headline and dig into the number excluding such a pendulum swinger.

Computers and related products

Computers and related products rose two months in a row, the only aspect of the last two reports to grow over 1% in orders. A 6.2% increase in January and a 1.8% February show a change of pace in growth however, businesses are routinely upgrading systems to keep up with competition.

Interest rates

The Federal Reserve has retained interest rates at a high. The U.S. central bank’s policy remains at 5.25%-5.50% for borrowers. Last month showed manufacturing remains constrained by those higher interest rates, which have curbed demand and caused higher prices.

The higher the rate, the lower the chances businesses are to borrow which ultimately means a slow down in orders and a hyke in prices.

Goods such as car parts have skyrocketed since rates were hiked last year. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve is predicting rates will remain high into the summer. March’s report will show investors reaction to rate cuts postponement.