After last month’s surprising job losses, the U.S. labor market is largely expected to rebound in March, continuing to support the “low hire, low fire” narrative defining the economy.

The number of jobs most likely increased by about 57,000, according to economists’ estimates, with the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.4%. New applications for unemployment benefits across the US rose only slightly to 210,000 this month, matching economists’ predictions.

If the estimates hold, the report should show a labor market that remains in stasis. It will supply new evidence to make sense of unexpected swings in payroll since the start of the year, with January posting unexpectedly large growth in jobs and February a striking decline. And while the war in Iran could factor into future jobs reports if the conflict drags on, it won’t be reflected in the numbers this early on. 

“Overall I would say the state of the labor market is stable” said Bank of America Senior US Economist Stephen Juneau. “It’s not necessarily a very robust or strong labor market, labor demand is definitely soft, but definitely more stable.”

Part of that stability is an economy finding its footing after a year of volatility from tariffs, where suddenly rising input costs were a shock to companies. Manufacturers have since adjusted, with the sector showing modest signs of growth; strong investment in AI and datacenters also continues to prop up GDP, along with resilient levels of consumer spending. 

Economists will be watching for a bounceback in healthcare employment after February’s strike. The sector has taken on an oversized role in propping up the labor market, and showed strong growth throughout 2025, but accounted for a whopping 28,000 of the 92,000 jobs lost last month. March’s numbers will show the extent to which recent events skewed overall payroll levels.

While rising energy and input costs stemming from the war in Iran are a concern for the economy, there shouldn’t be a real impact on employment numbers yet. How long the conflict will last is still an unknown, and it will take some time for employers to determine how to act. 

“It takes time for companies to reassess what’s their demand outlook, how many people do [they] need,” Juneau said. “This is a very uncertain time where oil prices have been bouncing around a lot. So you may not want to respond too quickly to that.”

If the conflict does eventually put pressure on the labor market, the first signs will be a slowdown in consumer spending, Juneau said. That hasn’t happened so far. 

While projections are generally positive, S&P’s purchasing managers index survey shows some possible downwards pressure on the service sector, with a contraction for the first time in 11 months. And month-by-month BLS data has become increasingly unreliable over the past year, with revisions significant enough to shift overall outlook on the economy.