What tariffs are in effect? Are we entering a recession? Can I still order cute kitchen gadgets from Temu?

These are some of the questions Americans have asked themselves as President Donald Trump has implemented — then taken back, then implemented again — drastic economic policies in the early days of his second term.

When taking the economy’s pulse, economists tend to favor hard data over speculation. This week, the U.S. Census Bureau will release an important set of hard data: the durable goods orders report for March, which estimates how many orders domestic manufacturers placed for goods that last at least three years. 

The report includes orders and shipments of everything from microwaves to car parts, and will offer some insight into how businesses have been making decisions amid so much uncertainty.

Here are five things to keep in mind ahead of March’s durable goods orders report, which comes out at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday, April 24.

Tariff mayhem may have caused a spike in orders.

On average, economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate that total durable goods orders grew by 2%. That could be, in part, because business owners increased their orders in anticipation of tariff-related price increases, which seemed to have been the case in January.

“Some of that probably was a rebound from a weak year, but some of it might just be your domestic companies trying to get ahead of tariffs and running through orders, to the extent that they can, before the tariffs actually take effect,” said Nicole Cervi, an economist at Wells Fargo. “I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a little bit of a bounce in March.”

As a reminder (and we don’t blame you if you need one), Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum went into place in March, while most other tariffs, including a universal 10% tariff on all imported goods, went into effect in April.

Businesses may be wary of long term investment.

While business owners may have been looking to stock up on certain goods before tariffs kicked in, that may not have been the case for longer term investments, given how uncertain the future of the economy is under Trump.

“If you want to build a factory today, it might be on hold,” Cervi said. “And so that’s a whole series of orders that you would be making on a set schedule that are essentially held off.”

A key indicator for long term economic investment is core capital goods orders. Capital goods are anything a business uses to create other goods — think, factory buildings and machinery. Core capital goods orders refers to the total orders of capital goods excluding those used for transportation and defense purposes.

Between January and February, orders for core capital goods orders fell slightly. March’s figures will reveal whether that trend continued.

Aircraft orders are expected to take off.

The durable goods orders figure for March includes orders of airplane parts, a sector that is expected to have performed well last month. That’s largely because Boeing, the country’s largest aircraft manufacturer, reported having its busiest month of the year so far for new orders in March. The company saw its deliveries jump 41% in March compared to last year.

Strength in the aircraft sector is a key reason that economists are predicting solid growth for March’s total durable goods orders.

Transportation orders are volatile, as usual.

But don’t make the mistake of reading too much into a jump in aircraft orders. The airplane sector is particularly volatile on a month-to-month basis, so it’s not the best indicator of long-term growth in the economy.

That’s why experts tend to look at other figures in the report, including total orders excluding transportation and core capital goods. Capital goods are anything used by a business to create other goods — think, factory buildings and machinery. Core capital goods orders refers to the total orders of capital goods excluding those used for transportation and defense. Economists consider the figure to be a strong indicator for long-term economic growth.

In this report, it’s also worth looking at the total number of transportation-related orders excluding aircraft — in other words, orders of cars and car parts. The figure might offer a clue to how automakers reacted to Trump’s 25% tariff on all cars and car parts, which he announced at the end of March.

The tail seldom wags the dog.

The most important thing to keep in mind when reading March’s durable goods orders report is in the name: The data was collected in March. That means it can only tell us so much about how businesses are responding to tariffs and other economic changes, given how much has changed since.

“Policy is the big driver of what’s going on,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics. “This report, I don’t think is going to shape in a meaningful way fiscal policy or international trade policy. This is more the tail — and the tail seldom wags the dog.”

“At his point,” the economist added, “policy is the dog.”